guywholikessport

May 11, 20237 min read

Who Is Most Likely to Win The Premiership from Here

We are through just over 1/3 of the AFL season and there is a pretty clear division between the wheat and the chaff.

We have a season that is short on dominance, but there are 4 teams that appear to be clearly better than the rest. From there we have an 11-team middle class, and finally a bottom 3.

If Jim Chalmers had his way, he’d probably introduce some salary cap breaks. Give a little to the losers, a bit more to the middle, and a lot to those who are negative gearing their inherited premierships.

What we are going to do, instead of airing grievances I have with small target Albo, is rank the teams that currently sit in the 8 in terms of their likelihood of winning the premiership.

1. Melbourne

Melbourne have the most talented list in the AFL and they just recently won the premiership. They’re second in total points, first in inside 50s, and first in metres gained. On the other side of the field, they’re a top 5 defence by points and are second in the league in intercept possessions.

Even with a few injuries over the season, the Dees are sitting at 6-2 and are second on the ladder.

So, why am I a bit tepid? Is it because they just went life and death with Gold Coast? Is it because they don’t have an alpha key forward? Does it even matter that they don’t?

I’ve got no idea. A big part of me thinks that they have a touch of the Jordan Peele’s to them. They burst onto the serious scene with Get Out and they just haven’t hit the heights since. They’ve not even been bad. It’s just that they’re not as good.

In any case, if I were handicapping, the Dees would be the favourite at this point in the season.

2. Brisbane

I have long likened Brisbane to a Mission: Impossible movie. Incredibly fun to watch, run by a problematic individual, but ultimately never going to win anything meaningful.

But maybe this season is different?

Josh Dunkley has been an extraordinary addition for them, making up for all of the grunt and size that Mitch Robinson took with him when he retired, but then bringing infinitely more polish and infinitely less vlogging.

As an aside, Mitch Robinson is about 5 minutes away from going onto Wayne Carey’s new podcast “The Truth Hurts” (do you know what else hurts, Wayne? Getting glassed) and talking about how Andrew Tate is mostly a comedian but also makes sense a lot of the time.

Additionally, Jack Gunston has brought a stabilising presence to that forward line. Where once the forwards were entirely mercurial and inconsistent outside of Charlie Cameron, the addition of Gunston has everything feeling like a safer proposition.

Statistically, they’re basically the same team that they have been for the entire Fagan era. High-scoring, dominant around the ball, and good enough defensively. But I do wonder if their additions should be enough to make them the second favourite in a competition that is begging for someone to announce themselves as the team to beat.

3. Collingwood

I cannot believe how good Collingwood is. Last season they were the 2022/23 Minnesota Vikings. Fluke artists.

I thought, based on my rudimentary understanding of natural regression to the mean, they would start losing close games and generally just not be as good of a side this year.

I was wrong. They are better.

They are first in inside 50s, second in contested ball, and fifth in clearances in the league. They sit fourth in scoring and have the second-best defence in the league.

Beyond all of that, they play the most intoxicating brand of footy in the league when it’s time to turn it on. When you have a lead against them, trying to defend that league must be like trying outrun the wave from The Perfect Storm, just impossible.

The Pies are not an overall statistical juggernaut. They are middle of the pack in most numbers that having nothing to do with the middle of the ground, except for scoring and defending. Which is kind of the whole game.

Beyond that, the Grand Final is played at the MCG.

The Pies are 15 from their last 16 there.

Handy.

4. Geelong

I wrote that I don't think that Geelong is going to win another premiership in the near future when they were 0-3 and their premiership defence appeared to be going as well as Wayne Carey's latest PR campaign.

One would think that campaign would be going better, given how many he has been through at this point in his life but alas, here we are.

Carey’s comment that his biggest regret in life was his affair with Kelli Stevens is truly one of the most remarkable comments I have ever heard. Particularly from a person who has a longer “Controversies” section of Wikipedia than George Santos.

Carey saying that is like Jack Torrance saying his biggest regret was not getting more of that book written.

While I maintain that Geelong are unlikely to win the premiership the year after having done what looked like their last job, they are still clearly one of the 4 best teams and they boast perhaps the most impressive statistical profile of anyone in the AFL.

I can’t see Geelong winning it all, but they are infinitely more likely than the rest of the competition.

In truth, you could throw a blanket over the top 4 really and put in whatever order you want. But the next 4 that currently sit in the 8 are all various degrees of no chance.

DAYLIGHT

5. Port Adelaide

I’m not really sure what Ken Hinkley has to do. There is a Twitter account that tweets every day asking if he has been sacked yet. He was once again on Caroline Wilson’s chopping block. It seems almost impossible that David Koch could hate Ken even more than he already does.

Ken might as well have a dip at Kochie’s daughter. What’s the difference at this point?

The Power are pretty good. They currently sit 5th at 6-2 and have embraced that high pressure, low disposal game that has seemed to win premierships lately ranking 17th in total disposals per game but first in tackles, fourth in clearances and sitting well above league average in terms of turnover differential.

Port isn’t a great side, but this isn’t a season for great sides. They’re a good side who will give anyone a trundle on a given week and they have an infrastructure that can bring in a malcontent like Jason Horne Francis, support him, and turn him into the player that North Melbourne knew he would be.

I ask again, what more does Ken have to do?

6. Western Bulldogs

A bit like Michael Fassbender, I just can’t quit the Bulldogs. They are statistically not a good side, despite having a few very good players. Their coach, who was once hailed as a genius, appears closer to being a Kendall Roy type figure if Kendall had a single actual success in his life, and got the most aggressive veneers known to man.

A big part of me wonders if the Bulldogs aren’t that good because Luke Beveridge’s veneers are blinding the players. He didn’t actually pick all 15 of those talls in the first few weeks, it was just that nobody could read the team sheet.

Notwithstanding the breathing mid-life crisis that they have at head coach (I hope Bevo has a convertible. I bet he does. He’d keep his skateboard next to it), the Bulldogs have one of the better spines in footy, at least as far as the game’s middle class goes. That alone is often enough to figure around September. It helps when you have the game’s best player as well.

I know I have the Bulldogs too high, but I just can’t help myself.

7. St Kilda

The Saints should be a spot higher. I know. They are second on the ladder and have the best percentage. They are unbelievable on the rebound and are clearly the best defence in the game. They also have the third best point differential in the competition which says that, even if they don’t score heavily, they score enough. They have done all of this with an extremely injured list and a bunch of kids coming through and having incredible seasons.

Ross Lyon has lifted all players at St. Kilda, even those that most would consider less talented.

But the game is still about the Jimmy's and the Joe's at some point. Even with the Saints’ injured starters coming back, I truly think there is just a talent difference and eventually that will matter.

I do wrestle with that concept, though.

Maybe the Saints are just as talented as the really good teams, but the players just aren’t that famous? Before Succession, nobody knew who Kieran Culkin was and everyone knew who Vin Diesel was. One is infinitely more talented than the other, and the answer isn’t the famous guy.

Part of me wonders if the Saints are following the recipe that so many of the greatest TV shows from The Sopranos, to The Wire, to Succession have followed. Find some ultra-talented, not overly famous people and put them in an exceptional system.

Let’s see how far they can go, and how quickly they can do it.

8. Carlton

Michael Voss appears to have gone to the Coach Mike Budenholzer School of Adjustments. The one and only lesson at that school is “Don’t Make Any Adjustments”.

Can’t get the ball forward? Well, we’d best not move one of the two highly mobile key forwards up ground to try and provide a chop out. That would leave us failing the first lesson!

Cripps getting brutalised by Josh Dunkley? He’ll work it out. Why would we throw him to the forward line, at least to get Dunkley out of the game for a bit? That would be an adjustment, idiot.

Try and get a bit faster around the middle? No way!

The Blues are easy to play against because Michael Voss refuses to change anything.

I hear they have started to call him Missionary Michael. He just hates changing it up.

Who Is Most Likely to Win The Premiership from Here

We are through just over 1/3 of the AFL season and there is a pretty clear division between the wheat and the chaff.

We have a season that is short on dominance, but there are 4 teams that appear to be clearly better than the rest. From there we have an 11-team middle class, and finally a bottom 3.

If Jim Chalmers had his way, he’d probably introduce some salary cap breaks. Give a little to the losers, a bit more to the middle, and a lot to those who are negative gearing their inherited premierships.

What we are going to do, instead of airing grievances I have with small target Albo, is rank the teams that currently sit in the 8 in terms of their likelihood of winning the premiership.

1. Melbourne

Melbourne have the most talented list in the AFL and they just recently won the premiership. They’re second in total points, first in inside 50s, and first in metres gained. On the other side of the field, they’re a top 5 defence by points and are second in the league in intercept possessions.

Even with a few injuries over the season, the Dees are sitting at 6-2 and are second on the ladder.

So, why am I a bit tepid? Is it because they just went life and death with Gold Coast? Is it because they don’t have an alpha key forward? Does it even matter that they don’t?

I’ve got no idea. A big part of me thinks that they have a touch of the Jordan Peele’s to them. They burst onto the serious scene with Get Out and they just haven’t hit the heights since. They’ve not even been bad. It’s just that they’re not as good.

In any case, if I were handicapping, the Dees would be the favourite at this point in the season.

2. Brisbane

I have long likened Brisbane to a Mission: Impossible movie. Incredibly fun to watch, run by a problematic individual, but ultimately never going to win anything meaningful.

But maybe this season is different?

Josh Dunkley has been an extraordinary addition for them, making up for all of the grunt and size that Mitch Robinson took with him when he retired, but then bringing infinitely more polish and infinitely less vlogging.

As an aside, Mitch Robinson is about 5 minutes away from going onto Wayne Carey’s new podcast “The Truth Hurts” (do you know what else hurts, Wayne? Getting glassed) and talking about how Andrew Tate is mostly a comedian but also makes sense a lot of the time.

Additionally, Jack Gunston has brought a stabilising presence to that forward line. Where once the forwards were entirely mercurial and inconsistent outside of Charlie Cameron, the addition of Gunston has everything feeling like a safer proposition.

3. Collingwood

I cannot believe how good Collingwood is. Last season they were the 2022/23 Minnesota Vikings. Fluke artists.

I thought, based on my rudimentary understanding of natural regression to the mean, they would start losing close games and generally just not be as good of a side this year.

I was wrong. They are better.

They are first in inside 50s, second in contested ball, and fifth in clearances in the league. They sit fourth in scoring and have the second-best defence in the league.

Beyond all of that, they play the most intoxicating brand of footy in the league when it’s time to turn it on. When you have a lead against them, trying to defend that league must be like trying outrun the wave from The Perfect Storm, just impossible.

The Pies are not an overall statistical juggernaut. They are middle of the pack in most numbers that having nothing to do with the middle of the ground, except for scoring and defending. Which is kind of the whole game.

Beyond that, the Grand Final is played at the MCG.

The Pies are 15 from their last 16 there.

Handy.

4. Geelong

I wrote that I don't think that Geelong is going to win another premiership in the near future when they were 0-3 and their premiership defence appeared to be going as well as Wayne Carey's latest PR campaign.

One would think that campaign would be going better, given how many he has been through at this point in his life but alas, here we are.

Carey’s comment that his biggest regret in life was his affair with Kelli Stevens is truly one of the most remarkable comments I have ever heard. Particularly from a person who has a longer “Controversies” section of Wikipedia than George Santos.

Carey saying that is like Jack Torrance saying his biggest regret was not getting more of that book written.

While I maintain that Geelong are unlikely to win the premiership the year after having done what looked like their last job, they are still clearly one of the 4 best teams and they boast perhaps the most impressive statistical profile of anyone in the AFL.

I can’t see Geelong winning it all, but they are infinitely more likely than the rest of the competition.

In truth, you could throw a blanket over the top 4 really and put in whatever order you want. But the next 4 that currently sit in the 8 are all various degrees of no chance.

DAYLIGHT

5. Port Adelaide

I’m not really sure what Ken Hinkley has to do. There is a Twitter account that tweets every day asking if he has been sacked yet. He was once again on Caroline Wilson’s chopping block. It seems almost impossible that David Koch could hate Ken even more than he already does.

Ken might as well have a dip at Kochie’s daughter. What’s the difference at this point?

I ask again, what more does Ken have to do?

6. Western Bulldogs

A big part of me wonders if the Bulldogs aren’t that good because Luke Beveridge’s veneers are blinding the players. He didn’t actually pick all 15 of those talls in the first few weeks, it was just that nobody could read the team sheet.

I know I have the Bulldogs too high, but I just can’t help myself.

7. St Kilda

Ross Lyon has lifted all players at St. Kilda, even those that most would consider less talented.

But the game is still about the Jimmy's and the Joe's at some point. Even with the Saints’ injured starters coming back, I truly think there is just a talent difference and eventually that will matter.

I do wrestle with that concept, though.

Maybe the Saints are just as talented as the really good teams, but the players just aren’t that famous? Before Succession, nobody knew who Kieran Culkin was and everyone knew who Vin Diesel was. One is infinitely more talented than the other, and the answer isn’t the famous guy.

Part of me wonders if the Saints are following the recipe that so many of the greatest TV shows from The Sopranos, to The Wire, to Succession have followed. Find some ultra-talented, not overly famous people and put them in an exceptional system.

Let’s see how far they can go, and how quickly they can do it.

8. Carlton

Michael Voss appears to have gone to the Coach Mike Budenholzer School of Adjustments. The one and only lesson at that school is “Don’t Make Any Adjustments”.

Can’t get the ball forward? Well, we’d best not move one of the two highly mobile key forwards up ground to try and provide a chop out. That would leave us failing the first lesson!

Cripps getting brutalised by Josh Dunkley? He’ll work it out. Why would we throw him to the forward line, at least to get Dunkley out of the game for a bit? That would be an adjustment, idiot.

Try and get a bit faster around the middle? No way!

The Blues are easy to play against because Michael Voss refuses to change anything.

I hear they have started to call him Missionary Michael. He just hates changing it up.

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