Have the Cats finally run out of lives?

Terminal lucidity, also known as "the surge", is a fairly common medical phenomenon. It’s defined as an unexpected return of mental clarity and memory, or suddenly regained consciousness that occurs shortly before the death of a patient already struggling with severe psychiatric or neurological disorders. Put simply, someone is extremely sick, rallies briefly, then ultimately passes away shortly thereafter. This phenomenon has been around since the 19th century and was even depicted on Grey’s Anatomy just prior to McSteamy’s untimely death (spoilers).

But it doesn’t just happen in medicine and extraordinarily long-running medical dramas, it happens in sport too. Think of Tiger Woods when he won The Masters in 2019. After a period of dominance in the late 90s and early 2000s Woods collapsed under the weight of 1,000 breached NDAs and was left without a Masters title for 14 years. But then, in 2019, everything changed.

By all accounts, Woods poured all of himself (not rare) into that victory and has not come close to recreating that magical moment since. When he put on that green jacket for the final time, as a cap on his extraordinary career, it was as if he exhaled. Even for a ferocious competitor like Tiger Woods, just getting that one last win was enough.

It’s the one last job principle from Heat or The Town or any bank robbery movie with a brooding middle-aged protagonist (literally any bank robbery movie).

Is it possible that Geelong’s run in 2022 was their last job?

This phenomenon of the ageing legendary athlete or team happens across virtually all sports. They rise for one final tilt at the title and when they get it, that’s it. The exhalation is lengthy as the bills that were put on credit eventually begin to come due. We’re seeing this with the Cats through Hawkins’ back issues and Selwood’s retirement after pushing his battered body through 3 “one last seasons”.

Consider Carlton in 1995. The Blues won 3 flags in the 1980s and one more in 1979. However, 8 years elapsed between their apparent era-capper in 1987 and their actual era capper in 1995.

In 1995, the Blues were both the oldest and most experienced playing list in the AFL with replete with ageing but still capable legends like Greg Williams and Stephen Kernahan. Those Blues went on one last run in 1995 winning 20 games in the regular season on the way to a famous premiership.

In 1996 it ended. They were still clearly the oldest and most experienced list except this time it was to their detriment as they fell out of the top 4 and won just half of their last 10 games and neither of their finals.

By 1997 they were 11th.

All of that sounds an awful lot like the Cats. Like the Blues in 95/96, Geelong entered last year and this as the oldest and most experienced list in terms of games played in the AFL. Also like the Blues, they won one last flag a long time after their presumed last flag – 11 years for Geelong.

Now like those very same Blues, Geelong is having some trouble. They haven’t lost their hunger. This isn’t a premiership hangover. What is happening to them happens to all great teams.

Eventually, you’ve fired your last shot. Their last shot was a nuke and the rest of the league was Hiroshima. This year is the natural comedown.

Consider their statistical profile. In 2022 Geelong ranked first in marks inside 50, first in inside 50s, first in score involvements, first in score launches, first in scoring. Then defensively they were second last in defensive 1v1’s given up per game, fourth in 1v1 loss percentage, second in least goals given up, last in shots conceded, last in points against. You can ignore all of those stats. They were a legitimate statistical juggernaut that won 18 games on their way to top spot with a percentage of 144, the best percentage since Sydney in 2016, and eventually a famous premiership.

In 2023, the conversation is entirely different as the Cats look old, slow and beaten up. It shows in their numbers. They are 10th in scoring, 15th in points against. Even though they are first in marks inside 50, they are 13th in scoring shots and 13th in total inside 50s.

While there are still some numbers that are still relatively strong, in short where Geelong was once excellent, they are now somewhere between mediocre and bad statistically.

None of this is to say that Geelong will not figure in the finals picture in 2023, however. At the very least as they get healthier, they will be an extraordinarily scary potential spoiler for teams at or near the bottom of the 8 if they themselves don’t make it.

It is, however, to say that what is happening to Geelong is entirely precedented. To quote Magnolia, this happens. It happens to great athletes and teams time and again. After long runs of excellence, and extended breaks between winning the ultimate prize, so often that final victory is the end of an era

Even the greatest teams run out of ammo eventually.

Geelong has, finally, won their last premiership.