Albert Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
Simon Goodwin has perfected it.
For the last 3 years Melbourne have done essentially the same thing, to diminishing returns. They dominate the intercept and turnover game through a solid structure behind the ball, are overwhelming defensively and through the midfield, and they bomb the ball deep to a forward line that could generously be described as a work in progress.
It could more reasonably be described as alternating between mediocre and catastrophic, usually depending on the level of the opposition.
Since 2021, Melbourne have never been lower than third in the competition for inside 50s.
This season, they were first by basically 2 per game.
They were fourth in shots per game by essentially 3 per game.
They were 7th for goals kicked on the season. 8th in scoring.
This was a bad side forward of centre.
Now, granted, this is at least partly a list issue.
They haven’t had a gun forward at all over their dominant last three regular seasons. When they won the premiership in 2021, Ben Brown was shooting flames out of every orifice, particularly in the Grand Final.
How did they combat this?
They went and grabbed Brodie Grundy from Collingwood. His career high for goals in a season was 12 when Melbourne signed him. He kicked 10 this year. His career average for marks is 3.4.
He’s a big man who plays a small man’s game.
That experiment went so badly that they picked another big man, Josh Schache, as the sub over Grundy in the final against Carlton and didn’t even use him.
Other than that, this is one of the best lists in the AFL.
They have three players who you could reasonably rank in the game’s top 10 players. They are clearly the best defence in the league both by the numbers and on paper. They have multiple elite players across every line except the forward line.
Even without a forward, they were third in point differential.
The fact that they have only won one premiership despite three top 4 finishes in a row is catastrophic. It borders on malpractice.
The fact that the defensive structure that they have hung their hat on for the last three years broke down so dramatically when the game against Carlton was at its tightest is, in my view, the biggest indictment on the Demons, and shines a light on their biggest problem.
Now we get to Simon Goodwin who, after an offseason of turmoil (granted he appears to have been done in by what appears to be a Glenn Bartlett scorned ex-girlfriend revenge tour), and a season where the ending seemed almost preordained in hindsight, was adorned midseason with yet another early contract extension that will keep him at the club until 2026.
Why?
You just extended him for 2 years in May of 2022.
Why do it again in August of 2023?
What’s he done to earn yet another early extension? Give straight bat press conferences and continued picking Tom McDonald in big games?
Watching Melbourne play the exact same game they played three years ago and get worse results each time must be so infuriating to Melbourne fans.
Every kick deep into some miscellaneous forward that nobody has heard of or who sucks now (Tom McDonald), usually off a brilliant bit of clearance or intercept work by a superstar, reminds me of every cut to an actor talking directly to the camera in any recent Adam McKay production.
In The Big Short it was fresh, funny and self-referential. In Vice it was getting stale but still played. By Winning Time, I started to think that watching Melbourne inside 50 entries might be less irritating.
They never find a lead. They never even seem to look. They just keep banging their head against the wall hoping the crack that they hear is the wall and not their head.
There is a lot of Bombers 2000 to this Dees’ outfit. Both were ultra-talented lists. When they won their premiership, the feeling was that it was the start a long reign with multiple premierships.
That was especially true given both came off the back of successive premiership winners. For Melbourne, obviously they came off the back of Richmond’s three premiership dynasty. For the Bombers, the previous 4 premierships were an Adelaide sandwich with Carey’s Kangaroos providing the bread.
This comparison is made even more true by the list demographics of those premiership sides. The Baby Bombers were 6th in experience and 3rd in age in the competition in 2000 but the guns were either young or at the start of their prime. Hird was 27, Solomon was 20, Lloyd and Lucas were 22, Misiti 25 and Fletcher 24.
The Dees in 2021 were not terribly dissimilar. They were 9th in experience and 6th in age but again, their guns appeared to be either young or still comfortably in their primes. May was 29 but has aged well, Salem, Petracca, Lever and Brayshaw were all 25, Oliver 23, Fritsch 24 and Pickett 19.
They appeared primed. It seemed easy to win multiple premierships. Wrong.
But for the Dees’ it goes beyond that.
The finals series in its current form has been in place since 2000. No team in the history of the current final 8 system has gone out in straight sets two years in a row.
They’re a James Harden football team. Good in the regular season, undeniably talented, but predictable, stubborn and easy to play come finals time.
Most of that blame has to lay at the feet of the coach who you just extended.
Damien Hardwick couldn’t find a thousand and first way to fry a sausage.
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