Explaining the Premiership Metrics through Goodfellas

After a week where most football journalists became experts in both breach of contract and tortious medical negligence, I thought I’d write about the finals series coming up next week.

 

You know the entrée to the main event in football, which as we all know is trade season.

 

At risk of being a troglodyte, I wanted to preview the finals series by using some numbers.

 

I’ll let the inquisitive mind of Brian Taylor talk about “who wants it more” around his usual job which is diagnosing severe hamstring tears wrongly.

 

At mid-season, I wrote this column about Andrew Whelan’s premiership metrics.

 

Now, at the eve of the finals, is a good time to check in on them again and see who the numbers really rate heading into the finals series and who they don’t. 

 

A quick refresher on what the premiership metrics are before we get into it: The premiership metrics are a group of metrics where at least 10 of the last 12 premiers have featured in the top six of each of these numbers.

 

The last 12 premiers have ranked in the top six in at least 78% of the metrics, and only one (Collingwood in 2023) has ranked in the bottom six for of any.

 

The Fields Medallists in the comments will astutely recognise that correlation doesn’t equal causation.

 

Gold star.

 

These stats are just a useful indicator of what has mattered in winning premierships over the last decade.

 

To avoid being boring, I have written each club’s statistical profile heading into the finals using Goodfellas quotes and moments.

 

The rags to riches needle drop – Hawthorn and the Bulldogs

 

The only two teams in the window are both teams that didn’t make the finals in 2023.

 

The Bulldogs are in the top-6 in 94% of numbers, and are a particularly elite territory team. They are top in 28% of the numbers.

 

Defence is their only weakish point as they allow opposition teams to move the ball out of their defence too easily, sitting 14th in rebound 50s per opposition inside 50. But since the move of Rory Lobb into defence and a general pressure improvement since the loss to Adelaide, my bet is that over the last month that number is better.

 

Hawthorn’s effort to go from 16th last season, ahead of only North Melbourne and West Coast, to the premiership window is astonishing. They’ve done it on the back of a well-rounded profile where they are less excellent than the Bulldogs, but also have fewer glaring weaknesses.

 

If the premier is going to come from one of these teams, it’s more likely to be the Bulldogs. They are simply more talented, particularly with Will Day out.

 

But the reason this song works for this part is that, like Henry’s turning from rags to riches, my bet is that it will ultimately ring hollow for each of these teams.

 

The numbers, while elite, aren’t enough to convince me that one of these rags to riches stories will end in the AFL penthouse..

 

“He thinks I’m paranoid. I should bring him the fucking helicopters then he’ll know how paranoid I am” - Sydney

 

In Goodfellas, that quote comes during the helicopter sequence. Everyone, including cocaine addled Henry himself, is telling Henry he’s being paranoid and the helicopters are nothing.

 

Anyway, at the end of the film he gets arrested - and not for baking cakes.

 

Sydney’s doing the same thing.

 

(Note that this isn’t just a comment on Sydney finance workers’ prolific cocaine usage, though it’s a handy secondary joke.)

 

They can tell themselves the midseason swoon where they lost 5/6 including a 112-point loss to Port was just a blip, but the numbers don’t lie.

 

After round 15, when the drop started, the metrics said Sydney were top in 61% of the key categories and in the top 6 of 94% of all categories. At that point, they were competing more with history than the rest of the AFL.

 

Now it’s a different story. They are top in 28% of all metrics (granted, that’s tied for the most in footy) and are top 6 in only 61% of them (fourth).

 

Even their wins since round 15 have been largely unimpressive.

 

Sydney can still win it of course, but Henry got arrested. Will they?

 

“The man hasn’t been able to digest a decent meal in six weeks!” – GWS

 

In Goodfellas, Henry is staying out late, coming home drunk and has his wife on edge every time he’s out.

 

What’s he doing? Will he come home?

 

The stress is unbearable.

 

It must be a bit the same for the Giants.

 

They have a premiership list, a top-4 spot, but a statistical record more closely resembles Gold Coast, Collingwood and St Kilda.

 

I wrote about how the Giants are riding their luck not long ago, and the numbers indicate that they are getting lucky.

 

I don’t have much to add to that other than to say if GWS does win, it might be time to do a Paulie and turn our back on these numbers. 

 

That would be two Premiers in a row who, at least in some sense, defy the numbers (though GWS would be a bigger statistical shock than Collingwood).

 

What would those premiers have in common? Ex-Richmond assistants and a riff on the Richmond game style.

 

At risk of being Brian Taylor I do think GWS can win because of their attitude, stats be damned.

 

I like numbers but I have eyes, and they tell me that being up for the fight matters in footy.

 

The history is hard to ignore, though.

 

“Nobody goes to jail unless they want to” – Geelong, Brisbane, and Port Adelaide

 

After all these years at or near the top, Brisbane, Geelong, and Port are still in it.

 

Nobody goes to the bottom unless they want to.

 

Brisbane particularly is right in it.

 

While they lack truly elite numbers, sitting in the top-6 in only 67% of metrics they also are only weak in efficiency numbers – rebound 50s per opposition inside 50 and opposition scores per inside 50s.

 

Given how good they are at inside 50 differential and opposition inside 50s – second in both – that feels to me more like quirk than cancer.

 

These numbers obviously don’t take into account how brittle Brisbane has been in Melbourne, but they’re just outside the window with a game style that we know stacks up. They’re still in it.

 

The other two teams are less compelling for this year and I would say less likely to hoist the trophy, but they’re both in the top-7 of the premiership metrics. Neither is bottom six in anything, but they lack the top end numbers to really challenge.

 

They’re in it, though.

 

That’s more than can be said for other teams that have had recent AFL success.

 

These teams prove that a team like Richmond only went to the bottom because they wanted to go to the bottom.

 

“You’re a real jerk. You wasted eight fucking aprons on this guy.” – Carlton

 

Carlton has a better statistical profile than GWS.

 

Carlton is not better than GWS.

 

GWS has this unwavering belief and swagger that they are never out of games. Carlton lost in the last game of the season to St Kilda and only got in because of a patented Fremantle disaster.

 

Like Henry wasted aprons on an irrelevance, footy is also going to waste words and energy on one.

 

They’re no chance.

 

In fact, I’m going to stop wasting words and thoughts right now.