guywholikessport

Apr 44 min read

Every Game of Footy Looks the Same

Every team has now played either three or four games, and I’m noticing a trend.

Does every game look the same to you?

Is it that a good thing?

In general, ubiquity = boring.

It’s what will inevitably happen when all the big clubs start to copy GWS’ social media strategy. We will get sick of social media teams talking shit when Collingwood is doing trash talk that’s been run past a few focus groups, instead of the pluckier clubs like GWS and St. Kilda trying to get some real estate in the footy social media space.

In sport, look at the NBA. There used to be a time where teams played differently depending on personnel. The Lakers and Celtics of the 80s and 90s played the same sport but they played in an entirely different way.

Today, virtually every NBA team except the Warriors plays in the same way. It’s always a high pick and roll action into a slash and kick with virtually every team in the league trying to shoot 3s. The league worked out that 3 points is more than 2 points, and it means that what often decides games is who shoots better from 3.

The games are less interesting because of it.

Other leagues have ubiquity across play styles too. Take the MLB, where the three true outcomes game that analytics says is most efficient way to play makes an already dry league even drier.

However, there are two leagues that I believe have generally benefitted from play style ubiquity and the analytics revolution.

The NFL is one. In the NFL now everyone looks to pass the ball first, is more aggressive on fourth down, and is more aggressive in the red zone. The analytics have made the game more fun to watch because more high leverage moments are engineered.

The AFL is the other one. Now every team essentially tries to play like Richmond did (except, ironically, Richmond). There is a real emphasis on transition, forward-half turnover, time in forward half, metreage, and pressure.

Most teams have put an emphasis on run, carry and speed and the game has opened up because of it.

It’s true across the league. In 2012, the league average for rebound 50 rate was 65, this year it’s 76. In 2012 the average for metres gained was 5,700, this year it’s over 6,000. In 2012 the average for turnovers was 64, this year it’s 68. In 2012, the league average for pressure acts per team was 267, this year it’s 294. Last one, in 2012 the team average for clearances was 38, 25 from stoppages. This year it’s 35, with 23 from stoppages.

Congestion stats are down. Openness stats are up.

Footy is now a higher variance, harder running, more open game across the board.

Yes, the rules have had a lot to do with it, but so has an almost competition wide adoption of a game style that raises all boats and heart rates as we watch teams launch wave after wave of runners.

Even St Kilda under Ross Lyon have put an emphasis on transition. They explode out of the back line, hunt the corridor, and have the horses now with Henry, Owens, Windhager, Wanganeen-Milera to attack the game in a way that Lyon teams never really have.

Ross did it on purpose. He saw the way that the game was being played and hunted runners and carriers, and figured he could incorporate his defensive identity into their games. While they’re only 1-2, they have been competitive in every game and are dramatically better than their record indicates.

I haven’t sold a cent of St. Kilda stock.

The most interesting team, though, is Sydney.

They have pivoted slightly off the original Richmond game, putting a premium on ball use as opposed to just metres. They are hunting turnovers, while not turning the ball over themselves.

It’s a difficult middle to hit given the breakneck speed that they play at.

Sydney’s ability to run in waves and pick out targets while running at full speed is remarkable. Prior to their annual catastrophic loss to a bad team, their rebound 50 rate was the best in the league, their kicking efficiency was the 5th best, and they were 3rd for shots per inside 50.

Those numbers have dipped slightly because of how poor they were against Richmond and how few games they have played this season, but at this point in the season I’m willing to treat the Richmond game as the exception rather than the rule.

Over their first games the best team by kicking efficiency, Brisbane, by way of comparison is 13th for rebound 50 rate and 15th for shots per inside 50.

Over the same period, Melbourne was 2nd for kicking efficiency, 1st for rebound 50 rate, and 9th for shots per inside 50.

Sydney is paying both Peter and Paul. They’re having their cake and eating it too. I don’t know how many other idioms I can type to simply make the point that Sydney is doing everything at the expense of nothing.

Like Anne Hathaway, they have it all.

When Sydney moves out of their back 50, they do it usually by foot through one of their elite ball users.

Watching Errol Gulden kick is like watching Ken Griffey Jr swing or Johnny Sins, well, you know.

It’s poetry.

But it’s not just him. They have McInerny, Campbell, Warner, Heeney, Blakey and on and on it goes.

They don’t exit in straight lines, nor do they enter their own 50 in straight lines. They’re more than happy to change the launch angle, but they always do it at speed. It’s like Mike Tyson pivoting from angle to angle until he finds an opening.

The quality of their entries is how a forward line that chock full of second and third bananas masquerading as first and second bananas can still be one of the most efficient in the league.

So, while Sydney is still among the best teams in time in forward half, turnovers in the forward half, transition, metres gained, and pressure generally, they get to those core tenets in a different way than teams have done in the past.

And that is the point. Virtually every team plays with the same core beliefs as to how to win the game, and it means that in many ways every game looks the same. But it also means that the game is exceptionally watchable, with even the pivots making footy more exciting.

Every Game of Footy Looks the Same

Every team has now played either three or four games, and I’m noticing a trend.

Does every game look the same to you?

Is it that a good thing?

In general, ubiquity = boring.

In sport, look at the NBA. There used to be a time where teams played differently depending on personnel. The Lakers and Celtics of the 80s and 90s played the same sport but they played in an entirely different way.

The games are less interesting because of it.

Other leagues have ubiquity across play styles too. Take the MLB, where the three true outcomes game that analytics says is most efficient way to play makes an already dry league even drier.

However, there are two leagues that I believe have generally benefitted from play style ubiquity and the analytics revolution.

The NFL is one. In the NFL now everyone looks to pass the ball first, is more aggressive on fourth down, and is more aggressive in the red zone. The analytics have made the game more fun to watch because more high leverage moments are engineered.

The AFL is the other one. Now every team essentially tries to play like Richmond did (except, ironically, Richmond). There is a real emphasis on transition, forward-half turnover, time in forward half, metreage, and pressure.

Most teams have put an emphasis on run, carry and speed and the game has opened up because of it.

Congestion stats are down. Openness stats are up.

Footy is now a higher variance, harder running, more open game across the board.

Yes, the rules have had a lot to do with it, but so has an almost competition wide adoption of a game style that raises all boats and heart rates as we watch teams launch wave after wave of runners.

Even St Kilda under Ross Lyon have put an emphasis on transition. They explode out of the back line, hunt the corridor, and have the horses now with Henry, Owens, Windhager, Wanganeen-Milera to attack the game in a way that Lyon teams never really have.

Ross did it on purpose. He saw the way that the game was being played and hunted runners and carriers, and figured he could incorporate his defensive identity into their games. While they’re only 1-2, they have been competitive in every game and are dramatically better than their record indicates.

I haven’t sold a cent of St. Kilda stock.

The most interesting team, though, is Sydney.

They have pivoted slightly off the original Richmond game, putting a premium on ball use as opposed to just metres. They are hunting turnovers, while not turning the ball over themselves.

It’s a difficult middle to hit given the breakneck speed that they play at.

Sydney’s ability to run in waves and pick out targets while running at full speed is remarkable. Prior to their annual catastrophic loss to a bad team, their rebound 50 rate was the best in the league, their kicking efficiency was the 5th best, and they were 3rd for shots per inside 50.

Those numbers have dipped slightly because of how poor they were against Richmond and how few games they have played this season, but at this point in the season I’m willing to treat the Richmond game as the exception rather than the rule.

Over their first games the best team by kicking efficiency, Brisbane, by way of comparison is 13th for rebound 50 rate and 15th for shots per inside 50.

Over the same period, Melbourne was 2nd for kicking efficiency, 1st for rebound 50 rate, and 9th for shots per inside 50.

Sydney is paying both Peter and Paul. They’re having their cake and eating it too. I don’t know how many other idioms I can type to simply make the point that Sydney is doing everything at the expense of nothing.

Like Anne Hathaway, they have it all.

When Sydney moves out of their back 50, they do it usually by foot through one of their elite ball users.

Watching Errol Gulden kick is like watching Ken Griffey Jr swing or Johnny Sins, well, you know.

It’s poetry.

But it’s not just him. They have McInerny, Campbell, Warner, Heeney, Blakey and on and on it goes.

They don’t exit in straight lines, nor do they enter their own 50 in straight lines. They’re more than happy to change the launch angle, but they always do it at speed. It’s like Mike Tyson pivoting from angle to angle until he finds an opening.

The quality of their entries is how a forward line that chock full of second and third bananas masquerading as first and second bananas can still be one of the most efficient in the league.

So, while Sydney is still among the best teams in time in forward half, turnovers in the forward half, transition, metres gained, and pressure generally, they get to those core tenets in a different way than teams have done in the past.

And that is the point. Virtually every team plays with the same core beliefs as to how to win the game, and it means that in many ways every game looks the same. But it also means that the game is exceptionally watchable, with even the pivots making footy more exciting.

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