Would you rather have a teleporter or a time machine?
Hawthorn fans would probably answer time machine, harking back to the halcyon days where they had short, successful Tony Soprano sitting in the head chair instead of short, successful at something else Artie Bucco when he gets into loan sharking.
That’s all the gimmick is here. It isn’t complicated and I’ve used it before around offseason jargon. I should have waited until after practice matches to write that one in hindsight. It’s good to know every trade, no matter how much was given up or paid to marginal players, has already paid off after the first practice match.
That’s a relief for Ned Guy, I’m sure.
This time, we’re just going to pit clubs against each other for either the next 3 or 5 years, taking everything into account, from list profile to aura of success and decide who we would rather be.
Would you rather be Richmond or Melbourne for the next 3 years?
This one is easy. Melbourne has ripped everything from Richmond. There’s trying to follow the Richmond model, then there’s just copying the whole thing damn thing. There’s just one problem, Melbourne isn’t as good at any of it. For instance the Tigers have never had a star player punch a teammate at a French restaurant, they also made the prelim 4 years in a row.
On the field, Melbourne and Richmond will be close to one another this year, but it’s in the following 2 years that the clubs will separate. Richmond is doing the Geelong model of rebuilding while contending, developing younger draftees like Balta, Gibcus and Bolton while also topping up with prime talent like Tom Lynch 4 years ago and now Hopper and Taranto. It’s true that Melbourne’s best players, Petracca and Oliver, are younger now but there is far less waiting in the wings for the Dees than there is for the Tigers.
(I know Melbourne signed Grundy. Congratulations. If a club tells you what they think about their big-ticket ruckman whom they see in training every day, listen to them.)
Beyond that, Melbourne are plagued by the same disease that Collingwood has been since Travis Cloke fell off the cliff, they cannot find a forward. Kareem Abdul Jabbar’s knees are currently in better shape than Ben Brown’s, Bayley Fritsch is talented but has never met a shot he didn’t like, and Gawn simply isn’t a forward.
Finally, Melbourne just seemed to lose interest in pressuring the ball last year. They gave up the 3rd most rebound 50s per game, gave up the third most kicks per game and fourth most marks per game. They were joined in those categories, almost exclusively, by Hawthorn and North Melbourne. Not exactly illustrious company.
Melbourne have won one and are fat and happy with it. The Tigers have won 3 but don’t appear to be done yet.
Verdict: Richmond.
Would you rather be Hawthorn or St Kilda for the next 5 years?
Let’s head down the other end of the ladder for this one. In one corner, you have an expensive, middle aged, profoundly average list with a has been (never won) sex pest at head coach. But there are a couple of genuine guns in premium positions that are still young enough to be in the next premiership team, if a premiership team wasn’t just a concept to St Kilda.
In the other corner, you have a much younger list but one that is not exactly full to the brim with players who have shown much of anything at AFL level, with a club legend and favourite son as coach. At least that part of it usually goes well.
To be honest, the answer to this one is that you’d rather just follow a different sport.
Based on the talent on the list and St Kilda’s hot start last season, you have to lean toward the Saints, especially given Max King is contracted until 2024 and did the deal well before he had to. St Kilda just have a better list. The Hawks don’t have a single player that approaches the level of King, Marshall or Steele (spare me, James Sicily truthers).
But The Hawks are a blank slate. Where St Kilda are the 11th oldest list with the 11th most experience in terms of games played, Hawthorn are the youngest list by basically a full year with the least experience by 10 games. The Hawks have torn it down to the studs and they know it.
If they don’t have anyone to build around on the list today, who cares? They are backing themselves to continue to be successful and have it turned around sooner rather than later.
For 2023 and probably 2024, this is easy. It’s the Saints and it isn’t close. For 5 years, it’s a coin toss.
Verdict: Hawthorn, just.
Would you rather be Carlton or Collingwood for the next 3 years?
This one is relatively cut and dried as well. Collingwood was intoxicating last year. They were next to last in virtually every single relevant statistical category. They haemorrhaged clearances, never had the ball and when they got it, they couldn’t keep it. They weren’t really much good at anything last year.
Other than winning.
They were an average side who won a lot of close games. This was borne out in their percentage, which sat at 104. The next worst in the top 8 was the Bulldogs, who sat at 109. Their percentage was closer to Gold Coast at 103 than any other top 8 side. Collingwood won 16 games and finished fourth, Gold Coast won 10 and finished 12th.
It was an absurd season that is virtually impossible to recreate. Ask the 2022/2023 Minnesota Vikings. Close game luck is a real thing and inevitably, after a season like the one the Pies just had, they are statistically very likely to fall back down to average.
The issue, though, is not that Collingwood had that incredible season. It’s that they think that incredible season is replicable. The move they made to add McStay is a “we’re one piece away” move. They could be forgiven for thinking that given they lost a prelim by a point, but they are not one piece away and the McStay contract will age poorly. As either a second or third banana in a highly potent Brisbane forward line, he has never kicked more than 28 goals. He has never even generated more than 40 scoring shots. He is not the antidote to Collingwood’s forward line woes.
Carlton, as much as it pains me to say it, have no such woes. They have one of the best lists in terms of top end talent in the AFL today and virtually all of their guns are locked up long-term. Carlton were profoundly (hilariously) unlucky to miss finals last year but I suspect that they won’t miss any more finals series over the next 3 years.
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