What’s that old saying? Opposites attract? Historically I disagree with the sentiment. It’s why I’m not dating a cheery girl with ultra-thin eyebrows who does not, in fact, like sport.
But, like Tony Soprano once said about his Uncle Junior, even a broken clock is right twice day. Super Bowl LVIII is one of those times.
The two teams that will contest the Super Bowl are diametrically opposed in how they are built, and yet will meet in the big dance for the second time in five years.
One team, the Chiefs, is built around a genius who plays quarterback. Patrick Mahomes is possibly the single best player that has ever played professional football. Even in a down year by his astonishing standards, he was still a top-10 quarterback through the regular season and is a top-1 quarterback in the playoffs.
He is what other professional athletes think they are. He can flick a switch when it’s money time and become unbeatable.
In a year where his weapons were among the worst in the league and his receivers led the league in dropped passes, he was the third most effective scrambler in the league by EPA among quarterbacks who started more than 9 games, behind only Josh Allen and Justin Fields. He does what he has to do to win.
In any case, the lack of weapons is by design. The Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill and trotted out Travis Kelce and Kelcettes for Mahomes to throw to. Kelce had a relatively quiet regular season and did not reach 1,000 yards for the first time in his last 7 seasons and the other receivers were just bad.
It was a bit like the John Butler trio except John Butler himself was busy with extracurriculars for the most part, and the other members of the trio had never played an instrument.
The Chiefs, however, remade the defence with the picks that they got from Hill trade and virtually all of the rest of their draft capital. Their ability to find diamonds both in the rough and in the diamond mine has been instrumental in this remodelling of the defence.
Their cornerback tandem of Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed, is proof of that. Sneed is possibly the best corner in the league, and was a fourth round pick. Trent McDuffie, on the other hand, was a first round pick and is also a star who plays the position like an absolute terrier.
They’ve done this balancing act across the whole defence, while remaining both incredibly young and incredibly good. Per Bill Barnwell, the Chiefs are the second youngest team in the league by snap-weighted age. The only younger defence was the Giants. The Cardinals were the third youngest.
Despite that, the Chiefs were 7th in defensive DVOA, 6th in defensive EPA/play and 4th in success rate.
Because of that young defence, the Chiefs are only 19th in the league this season in cash spending with a quarterback who making $59 million cash. They are second last in defensive cash spending.
What does it all mean? It means the Chiefs acknowledged that they have the superstar at quarterback and that he will just work out the offence, while the rest of the organisation focused on refreshing the defence.
The 49ers took the opposite approach.
Offensively, this team is like the Israeli army and the rest of the league are the Palestinian children’s hospitals that are allegedly housing Hamas cells.
Outgunned.
The 49ers are stacked at virtually every skill position on offence. Their running back, Christian McCaffrey is the best in the league and as a rusher and a passer.
Their receiver duo of Samuel and Aiyuk is one of the most dynamic in the league after the catch. Juan Jennings is the latest in a long-line of tertiary receivers who are animals in the run game and excellent on third down.
The tight end Kittle is still probably the best two-way tight end in the league.
Their offensive line is just okay other than Trent Williams, but it doesn’t really matter because Kyle Shanahan’s scheme has historically been offensive line proof.
It's also been quarterback proof.
Where the Chiefs prioritised the quarterback position at the expense of virtually everything else on offence, the 49ers have built up everything else on offence at the expense of the quarterback.
Brock Purdy is a perfect Shanahan quarterback. He’s inexpensive, making just over $1m against the cap this season, fearless over the middle, mobile enough, and has enough acuity to do what Kyle tells him to do.
As an aside, the debate about Purdy is insane. It’s like debating Jon Hamm’s career after Mad Men. He’s good at doing one thing. In fact, he’s better at doing that one thing than the other people we’ve seen trying to do that thing.
He also won’t be as good doing anything else. He’s just unbelievable at this.
That’s fine. Accept it.
While the 49ers have gone all in on the offence, they’ve also gone all-in on the defence. They are third in cash spending on defence. Each of Fred Warner, Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave and Charvarius Ward are at or near the top of the market at their position.
The Niners are third in cash spending on defence, eleventh on offence (only because Purdy is making peanuts). They’re 7th in total cash spending. Other than Miami, the rest of the five have all handed their quarterbacks market-setting extensions.
While the Chiefs have slowly and methodically rebuilt the defence, and will presumably get to the offensive weapons when they get around to it, the 49ers keep on pushing the chips into the middle of the table while the quarterback is cheap.
They’re Daniel Craig at the end of Casino Royale. They’re playing a high-risk game, have been burned before, but feel like this is their last best chance.
Because of who these teams have at the quarterback position, they have taken opposite but effective team-building approaches. In a lot of ways these teams are mirror images, and when they come together, I expect fireworks.
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