The Bills Offense is Having a Michael Corleone Moment

Michael Corleone is always cast as the modern version of a prodigal son. A son who left, was resistant to returning, then ultimately came back.

 

But what if we cast him differently?

 

What if, instead, he was the prince that was promised?

 

Think about it. Here’s this guy who, like his three brothers, has a piece of his legendary father. Fredo has Vito’s warmth, Sonny has Vito’s fight, and Michael has Vito’s calculating nature.

 

Each of them also lacks something of their father. Fredo doesn’t have the smarts, Sonny doesn’t have the restraint, and Michael doesn’t have the warmth.

 

Which profile is the best for a Mafia Don?

 

Obviously, it’s Michael’s.

 

Now, granted, that profile didn’t do wonders for his marriage. But his specific skillset, particularly his coldness, made him lethal in both street and business settings.

 

And despite that, Michael was doubted and underestimated on his way up. Tessio and Clemenza barely acknowledged him, even with Don Vito publicly backing him and he was doubted by the other five families, and then Hyman Roth and that crew in a way that they would never doubted his father.

 

I think we, the football watching public, made the same mistake with the Buffalo Bills as Hyman Roth made with Michael Corleone.

 

We underestimated the Bills, even when we could see the truth of it starting us right in the face: Josh Allen is one of the very best.

 

When in doubt, pick the best.

 

Coming into the year, the Bills were in a cap induced reset.

 

This offseason, they moved on from and didn’t really replace key offensive pieces from the initial part of Josh Allen’s Bills career like Stefon Diggs, Mitch Morse, and Gabe Davis. They also had some big losses on defence, most notably their safety pairing of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer.

 

They have a little over $70m in dead money counting against their cap this year, fifth in the league.

 

After 2-3 years of putting the team on the credit card to try and maximise Allen’s cheap years, the idea was that the bill had come due in 2024. In 2025 they’d be ready to get aggressive again with a clean balance sheet.

 

I bought into that. 

 

Even if Doug McDermott has shown himself to be a good coach and we like what Joe Brady did with the offense in the second half of last year, I didn’t think they had enough good players to really make a run at it.

 

I figured Josh Allen might be good enough on his own to jag a wildcard at best and it would be kind of fun to see Josh be a super-hero. Coming into the year they were roundly the second or third favourite in the AFC East and nobody’s pick (except Cousin Sal) for the Super Bowl.

 

How wrong I was. Like Tessio, I missed what was staring me in the face. 

 

Josh Allen is a stone killer.

 

The Bills just beat the Detroit Lions on the road in a barnburner of a possible Super Bowl preview and are now 11-3, the #2 seed in the AFC.

 

How have they done it?

 

They’ve made a major shift in offensive emphasis.

 

Like Michael switching from being “Senator Corleone” or “Governor Corleone” to Don Corleone, they changed their identity.

 

In the 13 second game against Kansas City in the 2021 playoffs the Bills ran the ball 24 times for 104 yards. However, that number is a bit deceiving. The Bills handed the ball to their running backs just 10 times for 26 yards

 

Not great.

 

They were a soft team, but for their bruiser at quarterback.

 

Since then, the Bills have undergone a metamorphosis and are now one of the toughest, meanest, most at-you offenses in the NFL despite lesser receiving talent.

 

Take the Bills general posture on early downs (first and second down).

 

They are currently ninth in early down pass rate.

 

In 2021 they led the league in that stat. That was partly because they had Josh Allen, and partly because they were the 27th best early down rushing team in the NFL.

 

This year they’re fourth in early down EPA/rush. On the season they’re second in EPA/rush behind only Philadelphia.

 

The Bills have prioritised toughness combined with the enormous advantage that is having Josh Allen.

 

Their early-down offense is built in that image, and it is highly effective.

 

You combine the venom of that running game, their metronomic early down success, with Josh Allen who has had 1003 yards 14 TDs and no turnovers in his past 3-games and you get one of the very best offenses in the NFL.

 

Because of Josh Allen, this is an offense that can stay on schedule with its run game but is as good off schedule as anyone. Allen himself is the number 1 “get you out of your seat” player in the league.

 

Against Detroit, another of the best running teams in the NFL and a team that prides itself on its toughness, the Bills ran all over them and held the Lions to their worst EPA/rush day since week 7 against the Vikings.

 

They out-toughed the tough guy. They were like Feech LaManna going up to the biggest guy in the prison and socking him one on his first day in there. 

 

After week 6, the then 4-2 Bills traded for 2/3 of a season of Amari Cooper. That read like a recognition that they themselves underestimated where they were at in their rebuild and wanted to add an ace to their passing game.

 

That ability to pivot on the fly is a big part of what has made them such a great franchise.

 

While Cooper hasn’t been great yet and had 0 targets against Detroit, he’s valuable in that he at least commands defensive attention and pulls it away from younger players in the passing game like Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir.

 

Allen is already the number 1 quarterback in the league in EPA/play, a metric that combines his passing and his rushing.

 

The Bills, even without a fully integrated Cooper are already the second-best EPA/dropback team in the NFL.

 

If Cooper gets rolling like we know he can, and the Bills run game stays as dominant as it has been, this Bills offense piloted by Josh Allen could very soon have its own baptism montage moment. 

 

The coronation of the King we all doubted, despite what was staring us in the face.