Superstar/Star/Potential Star for Every AFL List

Who are the good players in the AFL and who do they play for?

Sam McClure tried to answer the question recently but butted up against his own limitations - specifically that he doesn't appear to watch footy as Kane Cornes astutely pointed out.

I thought I, someone who watches footy, might give it a go instead.

 

It feels like an obvious question, doesn't it?

However, as someone who has a tendency to think more deeply about why Bailey Banfield is such a good linking player than about the guys who consistently wins games and finals, it’s worth refreshing myself on who the guys that really matter are in the AFL.

 

That’s particularly true after a season where essentially two guys dragged Sydney to a Grand Final last season, and Brisbane won the premiership at least in part because they got a second-year superstar back into the fold. 

 

Game plans and coaching tend to win seasons, but players win finals. Who are those crucial players?

 

To work it out, I have looked at each list and picked out the superstars, stars and potential stars from each of them. This isn’t about depth at all, it’s about which teams have the most high-end talent.

 

For the definitions, I have gone with the following:

·      A superstar is a structural piece. Someone who you build a list and a game style around because a prioritisation of their skills gives you a distinct advantage over the rest of the competition. It’s Gandolfini in The Sopranos letting you have believable scenes of both violence and tenderness.

·      A star is a step down from that. When you look at your list and you see that player in a given role, you’re happy with that because you feel like you’re in a good position comparative to the rest of the competition. This is more Sarah Snook in Succession, doing something not many others can do but not necessarily elevating to the Kendall Roy/Jeremy Strong level.

·      A potential star is wider ranging. The player has to be born in or after 2000 and has to have shown some sort of capacity to ascend to either the star or superstar level and hasn’t done it yet. This tier will be a broader church than the other two. Here we’re in the Chalamet in Lady Bird area. We don’t know what it is, but it’s something.

 

I’m only ranking players who have actually played in the AFL. We don’t know anything about this year’s draftees beyond just projection so I’m not ranking them.

 

Let’s get to the list.

 

Tier 1:  Tippy top of the pops

 

Brisbane

Superstar: Lachie Neale, Harris Andrews, Will Ashcroft

Star: Josh Dunkley, Hugh McLuggage, Dayne Zorko, Charlie Cameron, Jarrod Berry

Possible star: Kai Lohmann, Callum Ah Chee

 

Fremantle

Superstar: Caleb Serong, Hayden Young, Luke Ryan

Star: Sean Darcy, Andy Brayshaw, Luke Jackson, Shai Bolton, Alex Pearce, Josh Treacy, Brennan Cox, Heath Chapman

Possible star: Jye Amiss, Josh Draper, Michael Frederick

 

GWS

Superstar: Toby Greene, Lachie Whitfield, Tom Green, Sam Taylor, Jesse Hogan

Star: Stephen Coniglio, Toby Bedford, Connor Idun, Jack Buckley, Brent Daniels

Possible star: Aaron Cadman, Callum Brown, Darcy Jones

 

There’s not much to say here about Brisbane and GWS. Breaking news, good teams figure to still be pretty good next year.

 

For Fremantle, now is the time. With that list profile, with as many stars as they have, and with how spread out they are across the ground, it’s time to seriously contend now. This is their “did you order the code red” moment. If it doesn’t work now, then it might be hard for Justin Longmuir to handle the truth.

 

Separately, what’s interesting about these three teams is that they also have some young talent on the way up. By my count, Fremantle and GWS have three potential stars and Brisbane have two, but obviously Will Ashcroft hasn’t had his 21st yet and is already a Norm Smith medallist.

 

These are good teams that figure to stick around for a while.

 

Tier 2: Star-laden

 

Collingwood

Superstar: Nick Daicos

Star: Isaac Quaynor, Brayden Maynard, Josh Daicos, Dan Houston, Scott Pendlebury, Bobby Hill, Jack Crisp, Darcy Moore

Possible star: N/A

 

Geelong

Superstar: Jeremy Cameron, Tom Stewart

Star: Shaun Mannagh, Max Holmes, Tyson Stengle, Gryan Miers, Patrick Dangerfield, Ollie Henry, Mark Blicavs

Possible star: Sam De Koning, Ollie Dempsey

 

Sydney

Superstar: Chad Warner, Isaac Heeney

Star: Brodie Grundy, Will Hayward, Callum Mills, Errol Gulden, Nick Blakey, Jake Lloyd, Dane Rampe, Tom Papley

Possible star: Justin McInerney

 

Western Bulldogs

Superstar: Marcus Bontempelli

Star: Adam Treloar, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Tom Liberatore, Bailey Dale, Aaron Naughton, Ed Richards, Tim English

Possible star: Sam Darcy

 

Hawthorn

Superstar: James Sicily

Star: Jai Newcombe, Jarman Impey, Wil Day, Mass D’Ambrosio, Tom Barrass, Dylan Moore

Possible star: Changkouth Jiath, Josh Weddle, Calsher Dear, Nick Watson

 

This is clearly the biggest tier.

 

What does that say? There are some bloody good player in footy this year. Every single one of the teams here has at least eight star and superstar level players.

 

That’s unbelievable.

 

The most interesting here is Hawthorn, who, alongside having eight star or superstar level players also has four potential stars each of whom fills a different role. Jiath and Weddle are elite movers who can play on half back or, in Jiath’s case especially, on a wing. Whereas Dear and Watson are forwards who each kicked 25 goals last season.

 

The difference between this tier and the top tier is the tip top tier talent. Each of the teams in Tier 1 have at least three superstar level players, whereas these teams only have two at most.

 

It feels like Hawthorn is the side that could vault up a level by mid-season. Buying into them might be like buying Apple Stock just after the iPod came out. It’s high now, but chances are it’s just going to get higher.

 

Tier 3: Why isn’t this better?

 

Carlton

Superstar: Patrick Cripps, Jacob Weitering, Charlie Curnow

Star: Harry McKay, Sam Walsh, Adam Saad, Tom De Koning

Possible star: Elijah Hollands

 

Gold Coast

Superstar: Noah Anderson

Star: Touk Miller, Matt Rowell, Dan Rioli, Ben King, Sam Flanders, Mac Andrew

Possible star: Jed Walter

 

Melbourne

Superstar: Steven May, Christian Petracca, Max Gawn

Star: Jack Viney, Jake Lever, Clayton Oliver, Trent Rivers, Kysaiah Pickett

Possible star: Jacob van Rooyen, Caleb Windsor

 

These teams could conceivably have been in Tier 2. Carlton and Melbourne actually have as much top-tier talent as the Tier 1 teams while Gold Coast has seven star or superstar level players.

 

However, I couldn’t do it.

 

It’s like Gladiator 2 being a shot for shot remake of Gladiator but worse. I’m left feeling a bit cold, thinking this should be better but it isn’t.

 

Why? If it isn’t the players, which is the whole point of the exercise, then what is it?

 

I’m pretty sure I know the answer for Carlton and Melbourne – it starts with C and ends with oaching. At least you can see the vision for the future for Melbourne as May and Gawn particularly start to age out of their superstar statuses, with guns like Windsor and van Rooyen.

 

For Carlton, it truly feels like next two years or bust.

 

I’m willing to give Gold Coast a bit more grace, however, if Hardwick can’t at least make finals this year then it will be worth wondering if he’s a Kendall Roy. Just a cog built to fit one machine.

 

I don’t think that yet, but I don’t not think it.

 

Tier 4: Why is this so good?

 

Port Adelaide

Superstar: Zak Butters

Star: Connor Rozee, Ollie Wines, Jason Horne-Francis, Aliir Aliir

Possible star: Jase Burgoyne

 

Port is the opposite. When Warren Tredrea isn’t giving us his astute and well considered political opinions for Australia, America’s 51st state, he’s shi**ing on Ken Hinkley. And now he's successfully pushed him out, and wrapped that push out in the language of a "succession plan".

 

Why?

 

As far as high-end talent, this team is closer to North Melbourne than it is to GWS. Yet Ken has won double digit games every year of his career and is 34-17 over his last two years including finals.

 

Honestly, I think I’m being generous with Ollie Wines here too. Who are their game wreckers other than Butters? They don’t exist.

 

Ken Hinkley might have the Mike Tomlin curse. Too good at getting the most out of a roster in the regular season, not a good enough roster to compete in the postseason.

 

Tier 5: Ready to go

 

Adelaide

Superstar: N/A

Star: Jordan Dawson

Possible star: Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty, Josh Rachele, Jake Soligo, James Peatling

 

North Melbourne

Superstar: Harry Sheezel

Star: George Wardlaw, Luke Davies Uniacke, Nick Larkey

Possible star: Colby McKercher, Charlie Comben, Zane Duursma

 

St Kilda

Superstar: Rowan Marshall

Star: Max King, Jack Steele, Liam Henry, Jack Sinclair

Possible star: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Mitch Owens, Darcy Wilson, Anthony Caminiti

 

The teams in this tier look like, if they can get some internal development from the kids in the rising star section, it might be time to reintroduce themselves to the month of September. If not this year, then next.

 

Adelaide and St Kilda each have at least four potential stars while North has three. However, that’s offset by North Melbourne having the best player of the bunch in Harry Sheezel and the fact that George Wardlaw is already a star and is only 20.

 

It’s also interesting to see how explosive and creative the players on the St Kilda list are, for the most part. Liam Henry is an incredibly clever player, Wanganeen Milera is a runner and a ball user, Mitchito Owens is probably ideally their version of a forward/mid and Darcy Wilson is as good of an athlete as there is in the AFL.

 

Ross the Boss seems to be interested in playing more exciting footy. He’s the coaching version Liam Neeson, moving away from playing Oscar Schindler and into an action hero with a very specific set of skills. If he can blend his defensive principles with more enterprising footy guided by more enterprising personnel, he could be a nightmare for the rest of the competition.

 

Tier 6: You’d want to be drafting well

 

Essendon

Superstar: Zach Merrett

Star: Andrew McGrath, Jordan Ridley, Kyle Langford, Mason Redman, Jye Caldwell

Possible star: Sam Durham, Nate Caddy

 

Richmond

Superstar: N/A

Star: Tim Taranto, Toby Nankervis

Possible star: Josh Gibcus, Noah Balta

 

West Coast

Superstar: N/A

Star: Jake Waterman, Elliot Yeo, Tim Kelly, Harley Reid, Oscar Allen, Jeremy McGovern

Possible star: Reuben Ginbey

 

These are teams who didn’t make finals last year with a pretty bare cupboard in the possible star department.

 

Essendon and Port Adelaide were the two hardest teams to tier.

 

I’ve put Port higher because they were top-4 last year while Essendon failed to make finals. The Bombers also seem to lack young possible stars coming through, though they do have some star level talent.

 

It also looks deceptively okay at West Coast, though a closer look at the stars shows mostly players who probably aren’t on the list in three years outside of Reid and Allen. They are in a difficult position kind of stuck between eras. Normally I don’t mind that position for a bad team given the young players always have adults on the field, but West Coast’s adults hate to run more than Nick Kyrgios so I don’t know how much help they are.

 

It's grim for Richmond. They had better be right on that bumper draft crop otherwise it could be an historically bad few years for the Tigers.