Ranking the teams most likely to win the Super Bowl
Bill Belichick always said that the season doesn’t start until Thanksgiving. He used to mean it because after Thanksgiving is when playoff preparation usually starts, but this season he meant it in the sense that it was time to really put his back into losing games.
Playing for a 35-yard Chad Ryland field goal attempt in a game against the slightly less hapless New York Giants is not quite what he had in mind when he first issued that coda years ago.
For the 2023 season, in my view, there are 7 teams that have a realistic shot at winning the Super Bowl: Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Dallas, and Miami.
The Bengals can’t win with Burrow out and the Bills are probably cooked after their loss to the Eagles dropped them to 6-6, especially when you consider their schedule coming home. These two teams are like Michael Douglas in The Game before we knew it was a game, supernaturally unlucky.
The next two teams who might have a legitimate chance are the Texans and Jaguars who played a barnburner in week 12, but each of those teams feel to me to be a year away.
So, who of the 7 legitimate chances listed is the best shot at winning it all? Let’s go through them.
1. Philadelphia Eagles
The most likely team to win it all in, to my mind, is Philadelphia. Every set of downs is effectively first and 7 for the Birds with the effectiveness of the tush push, to the point where Jalen Hurts is the number 1 rushing player in the NFL by EPA and success rate.
They’re also either the most talented or second most talented roster in the league. Dominant across both lines, star outside corners and receivers, and talent at virtually every premium position.
Beyond that, they feel a bit like a team of destiny. They’ve been outgained in each of their last 4 games and are eking out wins in far less impressive fashion than they did last year. The Jake Elliott kick for the win was like when an action hero is getting older and starts looking like he’s losing fights in movies, only to pull it out with guile and nonsense. Like Tom Cruise in the bathroom fight with Henry Cavill in Fallout.
Their quarterback especially has been Ethan Hunt-like in “gotta have it” situations, to the point where he has generated 35 EPA when the Eagles have a less than 50%-win probability. Jalen Hurts has Macgyvered wins again and again this season.
Part of me wonders, however, if they are a bit like Melbourne of 2022. The Dees won virtually all of their early season games in decreasingly impressive fashion, largely on talent executing at critical moments, only to fall off when the competition got consistently better.
I don’t think that will happen to Philly this year with Hurts at quarterback, but it is a comparison that has been in my head.
2. San Francisco 49ers
If Philly isn’t the most talented roster in the NFL, then it’s San Francisco. That’s been true for basically each of the last 3 years and remains true this year.
They have a dominant defence again and offensively they are, yet again, a juggernaut. So why are they number 2? I like Philadelphia’s quarterback more.
Statistically it’s hard to make any argument against Brock Purdy. He’s number 1 on the season in EPA per dropback, total EPA, passer rating, success rate and the list goes on.
But we know that this system is a Maserati that can be piloted by just about anyone, right up until playoff time. Purdy is a better, more creative player than Jimmy Garropolo, but we haven’t seen him do it in the playoffs yet. We have seen Jalen Hurts.
I can’t wait for the game between 1 and 2 this week.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
The story for the Chiefs starts, for the first time Patrick Mahomes’ career, with the defence, which is young and dominant. The Chiefs are 4th in sacks, 6th in first downs allowed percentage, and 3rd in yards allowed per pass. All while being the youngest defence in the NFL by snap-weighted percentage.
It’s just the offence that has been the problem.
Prior to their dismantling of the Raiders after going down 14-0, the Chiefs hadn’t scored in the second half of a game for a month. Mahomes has been consistently let down by his receivers, despite Mahomes himself having a good year by the standards of narmal quarterbacks, sitting second in EPA per dropback and fifth in success rate.
To win it, the Chiefs will have to do a hot a Charlize in Monster and play against type. With how good the defence is, it’s possible.
4. Baltimore Ravens
It’s not a tremendously dissimilar story for the Ravens to the Chiefs. There’s a star quarterback who is being let down, somewhat, by a supporting cast (albeit the Ravens are better on the outside than the Chiefs) and a defence that is as dominant as it is intricate.
A lot of the analysis for the Chiefs can pretty much be regurgitated here. The question for the Ravens that is different, however, is one of health. They’ve already lost Mark Andrews and the offence looked relatively toothless against a Chargers team that’s being coached by the deadest man walking outside of Bruce Lehrmann. Lamar Jackson himself has also struggled to stay healthy into December and January.
This defence is a Super Bowl defence, the question is whether the offence can keep up. It’s the same question for the Chiefs, but, again, I just like the Chiefs’ quarterback more.
5. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are possibly the best good bad team in recent NFL history. They demolish bad teams to the tune of a +162 point differential, best in the NFL by more than 3 touchdowns.
Dak Prescott is getting some MVP buzz as he has been absolutely scalding hot since week 6. Since week 6 the Cowboys are 5-1 with their only loss being to the Eagles. They have scored 40 points in the 3 out of 6 games since week 6 and haven’t given up more than 28 at all in that same time period.
But, their wins have bene against the Chargers, Rams, Giants, Panthers and Commanders. 3/6 have either sacked their coach or will inevitably sack their coach.
The Cowboys are good. Let’s see them beat another good team before we push them any higher.
6. Detroit Lions
Detroit losing on Thanksgiving isn’t why they are this low. A lot of that loss can be put down to unfortunate moon positioning anyway.
You also can’t blame the offence, called by one of the best young playcallers in the NFL, Ben Johnson and led by the NFL’s new triplets of David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St Brown. They account for virtually 70% of the Lions’ offence when on the field together.
You can’t even blame Jared Goff who has shown, yet again, when he has time, he can absolutely throw the cover off the ball on his way to a top 10 season.
Their this low because of the defence which is, all of a sudden, one of the NFL’s worst.
While they are one of the better run defences in the NFL, they really struggle to heat up the quarterback or force turnovers, as they sit 20th in the league in interceptions and 26th in sacks. This last month has also been their worst month, giving up 27PPG, around the same as they gave up in 2021, the first and worst year of the Dan Campbell era.
If they can’t get the defence playing like they played earlier in the year where they shut out the Falcons and held the Bucs to 6 points, they can’t win it.
7. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins won’t win it. They’re doing what they did last year and dropping off at the worst possible time.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is third in the NFL across the season in EPA per dropback and 8th in total EPA. He’s 26th and 28th in both of those categories over the last month.
Their explosive play rate has fallen off a cliff as teams have started to work out their short motion looks. While they still lead the league in explosives with an explosive play rate of 15.7%, that number has dropped by about a quarter since week 5 and their offensive success has gone with it.
The defence is improving with the return of Jalen Ramsay, allowing 17 or fewer points in 3 from the last 4 games, but it isn’t enough to make up for the drop off on offence.
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