All-time teams
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. San Francisco 49ers
The best stat overall to measure how good a team is in the NFL is DVOA (Defense adjusted Value Over Average). It was developed by Aaron Schatz and basically it breaks down an entire season play-by-play comparing a given team’s success on each play against the league average in similar situations.
So, by DVOA, a 15-yard touchdown thrown by a player to put the team ahead in the last 15 seconds of a game will count for more DVOA than a 15-yard touchdown tossed in garbage time.
Through 16 games, the best team by DVOA since 1981 is the undefeated 2007 Patriots, then the 1991 Washington Redskins, then the 2023 Ravens.
THEN, it’s the 1985 Bears.
Ever heard of them?
The 2023 49ers were number 6 after 16 games.
Things changed after week 18 (Ravens dropped to five all time and the Niners to eight) but both had locked up the #1 seed and rested the starters. Beyond that, the rest of the teams in contention also played 16 games so that number is an apples to apples comparison.
There are these two teams then there’s everyone else. They are dominant and fun on both sides of the ball. Even despite a relatively easy Baltimore win in first meeting between these two teams, if they meet in the Super Bowl, and I expect that they will, it will be fireworks.
It’ll be like in Fight Night Champion when you come up against Isaac Frost to become a champion, but each team is the other’s Isaac Frost.
I hope we get it.
Dominant Units
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. Cleveland Browns
5. Detroit Lions
These three teams do one thing extremely well.
Honestly, the Cowboys do two things extremely well but they don’t fit in with the 9ers and Ravens and I didn’t want to give them their own tier so here we are.
For the Browns, they have an utterly dominant defence. They have double digit wins despite having the 25th ranked offense by DVOA in large part because they have the second ranked defence by DVOA just behind the Ravens. The Ravens and Browns are each over -20% DVOA. That’s double as good as the #3 Jets.
They also lead the league in defensive EPA per play and success rate. It’s dumb how good they are on that side of the ball.
But defence hasn’t won championships in the NFL for years.
Their ace in the hole is Joe Flacco, for whom there is real momentum to displace the guy that died momentarily on an NFL field for comeback player of the year in the NFL. Getting this from Flacco 5 years after he was even mediocre would be like getting a great performance out of Bruce Willis in his next movie.
Bruce Willis has dementia.
In Detroit, it’s all about the offence. Which is a relief because the defence is abominable. But on offence they are multiple and varied despite being built around running backs, a (possibly injured?) tight end and a power-slot receiver. They’re top 5-10 in every offensive metric across the run and the pass and are varied enough to be almost impossible to gameplan against.
In a league that hasn’t had many offensive successes, these Lions are right there.
WTF Happened?
6. Kansas City Chiefs
7. Miami Dolphins
8. Philadelphia Eagles
In Kansas City, the answer is pretty clear. It turns out Mahomes can’t elevate a team above its number 1 and 2 receiver being two of the worst 7 receivers in the league and his star tight end finally showing some signs of age. The defence is good and Mahomes is still Mahomes so they’re the best of this bunch, but I’d be shocked if they are able to win it all.
For Miami, the answer to what happened is also pretty clear. Injuries. Tua has hurt his shoulder, Hill isn’t the player he was early in the year, Waddle and Mostert are hobbled, and their offensive line is missing pieces everywhere. That’s just the offence.
On defence it’s even worse with injuries to their best players on both the first and third levels of the defence in Chubb and Howard.
Honestly, they should be lower.
For Philadelphia it’s less clear what occurred. This is still a talent-rich team and they’ve been relatively healthy through the year, so you can’t blame injuries. The biggest drop off has come on defence.
They are third worst by EPA-per-play and seventh worst by success rate. They give up explosives and are abysmal down to down.
Their fix for the defence is to hire Matt Patricia whose ego is matched only by his incompetence. Having Patricia come in to fix a bad defence is like having Charlie Sheen come in to fix your drinking problem.
On offence, they’re a top-10 unit by most metrics but it frankly doesn’t feel that way. They’re only that high because they have good players who occasionally make good plays.
They have no easy buttons to push offensively and the stuff that worked last year just isn’t working in the same way. It’s almost as if the coach who doesn’t call plays on either side of the ball and seems to be largely in charge of yelling at opposing fans losing both of his co-ordinators in one offseason was a bad thing.
There’s almost no inventiveness on the offensive side of the ball and there’s less on defence.
These teams are only this high because they still have some good players, and two of them have exceptional coaching.
Objects of Fascination
9. Buffalo Bills
10. LA Rams
11. Houston Texans
12. Green Bay Packers
If I had it my way, this group would be one tier higher.
But you wrote the article?
I know. but I have to be sensible.
Obviously, each of these teams, except maybe the Bills, is less of a chance to win it all than the Eagles, Dolphins or Chiefs. With that being said, it would be a lot more fun if they did.
Each of these teams is fun and fascinating in some way, if a bit unserious. Each team has a quarterback that has shades of the rest, in terms of their willingness to stand in the pocket and make high-risk, high-reward throws.
Matt Stafford and Jordan Love of the Rams and Packers especially are like the Dude Perfect of the NFL. They’re trick shot artists that are appointment viewing every single time out.
Josh Allen of the Bills is a battering ram with the best EPA per rush of any quarterback while also sitting second in success rate.
Finally, CJ Stroud of the Texans, has had maybe the best rookie quarterback season of all time. He is reminiscent of a young Ben Roethlisberger (on the field) in the way that he is willing to wait and wait for a big play to come open even if it means taking a shot.
Less Fascinating, Less Good
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14. Pittsburgh Steelers
In a lot of ways, the bottom of the playoffs is more interesting than the top, other than the two historically great teams.
That thesis falls off here.
One of these teams, Tampa Bay, is an interesting quirk of this NFL season. Why? The quarterback.
After having been written off after failed stints in Cleveland, Carolina and briefly LA, Baker Mayfield looked destined to have a career as a feisty backup. Then we got this season. Baker has always let the ball rip and this year, surrounded by Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, he has really let the ball go sitting fifth in air yards and fourth in average depth of target. Baker has made the Bucs fun.
The Steelers are less interesting because metronomic greatness is simultaneously less fun and more impressive than a flash in the pan season.
Mike Tomlin, as has been said a million times before, has never been below .500. He’s in the playoffs yet again despite cycling through Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and now possible race criminal Mason Rudolph. Rudolph has looked like John Elway compared to the other two and has been able to ride a top-10 defence to the playoffs while reviving George Pickens’ interest in playing the game he’s paid to play.
Steelers fans must hear Jerry Seinfeld’s bit about rooting for the laundry and not quite get it given following football has been a pretty worthwhile and fulfilling exercise for them overall.
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