Davis v Garcia: Preview

While I’ve already covered all of the outside the ring issues that are stubbornly hanging over the fight between Gervonta ‘Tank’ Davis and Ryan Garcia, I haven’t yet talked about what I think will happen in the ring on April 23, AEST.

Let’s do it now.

Davis v Garcia is an excellent matchup between two relatively untested, fairly aggressive boxer-punchers with concussive power in both hands. Even if the fight is unlikely to be a war, the finish will no doubt be explosive.

Let’s start with Tank. When talking about Tank, you can only start in one place. Power. Davis hits as hard as any little man since Roberto Duran. His power is a genuine equaliser in every bout. He has knockout power in both hands but with every step he takes, every move he makes (he’ll be watching you), he has the intention of setting up his atomic left hand.

He is not a busy fighter, especially early, but his reputation makes him an effective pressure fighter. In his last fight against the tricky and talented Hector Luis Garcia, Davis landed a total of 9 punches through the first three rounds as he sought to understand Garcia’s movement patterns and how he reacted to Davis’ exaggerated fakes. As he gets into a rhythm and begins to understand his opponent, Davis is violent and dangerous and only needing one big shot for it to be over. Beyond that, he’s an extremely effective counterpuncher and can absorb pressure almost as well as he can put it on.

In a lot of ways, he’s a little Canelo.

That extends to his defence. Tank does get hit occasionally, but as far as I can remember he has never been truly rocked and has never hit the canvas. He’s able to walk this tightrope because he so rarely opens up unless there is blood in the water and in the interim, he’s so diligent with his hands and feet. Combine this with the fact that his power is such that opponents don’t want to give him anything to hit, and Davis is almost as effective defensively as offensively.

The most comparable fight for Davis is his bout with the bigger, but weight drained, Mario Barrios who is basically the same size and has the same reach as Garcia. Barrios is extremely jab-centric and was in the Davis fight. His approach to the fight is similar to what I expect Garcia to do, be aggressive with the jab and walk forward, keeping Davis at the end of his jab and on his back foot. He had some success doing that but Davis clearly landed the cleaner counters throughout and got into a rhythm quickly because Barrios was unable to be multiple with his jabs and angles of attack. Jabbing Davis and walking in a straight line is a terrific way to lose the fight in violent fashion, as Barrios ultimately did.

Garcia is different. He’s also an excellent fighter with real power, especially coming in the form of a dangerous and explosive left hook. He is more (too?) willing to open up and engage early with 14 of his 23 wins coming by way of knockout inside 2 rounds. Even against better fighters, Garcia wants to have an early night. In Garcia’s fight with Luke Campbell, clearly Garcia’s best opponent ever, Garcia pressed the action instantly, jabbing to the body and looking for big left hooks and right hands.

However, Garcia is far less diligent defensively. He fights with his chin up just begging to be hit. He Is not sharp defensively as much as he is an excellent athlete who uses that athleticism to get out of the way. His defensive issues are stark, however, when he throws combinations. He puts his punches together beautifully and throws with bad intentions, but he can look like he’s hitting pads at times. When throwing combinations, he will just stick his chin wide open in the air, begging to be hit.

Looking again at his fight against Luke Campbell, Garcia was put on the deck in the second round by a big left hand from the southpaw Luke Campbell. The shot landed after Garcia tried to end the fight with a flurry and became tired. Garcia threw a half-hearted jab, stuck his chin up and moved his protective right hand away from his chin in response to a body fake from Campbell. Campbell cracked him and down he went. While Garcia got up and won the fight impressively, comparing Davis and Campbell’s punching power is like comparing my punching power to Deontay Wilder. If Davis lands a similar shot, to quote Jim Lampley, it will “rearrange [Garcia’s] beautiful face”.

Davis must have watched the Campbell fight with great interest, particularly given Campbell is both the best fighter that Garcia has ever faced and the best southpaw. Beyond that Davis has landed and won with that fake to the body, indirect overhand left shot more times than I can count, even dropping Mario Barrios with an extremely similar punch.

Even though Garcia's bout against Campbell was 2 years ago and with a different trainer, I find it hard to believe that Garcia has changed dramatically as a fighter after a disappointing bout with Emmanuel Tagoe (not Garcia’s fault) and an easy win against Javier Fortuna.

So, what happens? If Garcia stays disciplined, he is capable of beating Davis. Luke Campbell is one of the better opponents either man has had, along with a fading Leo Santa Cruz, and Garcia is the only combatant who has shown any ability to weather a significant storm.

Davis is a bully in and out of the ring so Garcia needs to be diligent in keeping his distance and utilising his jab to frustrate the bully. Additionally when either man is looking to punch, Garcia must be hyper vigilant with his hand and chin discipline. Davis is such an effective counterpuncher that if Garcia and Goossen have not worked on and meaningfully improved this are of Garcia's game then it will be goodnight Irene earlier than we think.

Garcia’s path to victory is the same path to victory that all taller men have against shorter men. Jab, jab, jab. Garcia needs to be able to keep Davis at the end of his jab, vary his jab, fake consistently, and not let Davis get into a rhythm where he starts to time Garcia's movements and combinations.

Based on all of this, I think Davis wins and wins explosively. Garcia is an extremely talented fighter, but Davis is a rare prodigious puncher who is also excellent defensively. Where some fighters start slowly and get credit for “downloading information” where in reality they’re just warming up, Davis really does download information and set traps that always come back to bite the opponent. He is too smart, too good defensively and too powerful to be beaten by Ryan Garcia.

Davis by round 10 KO.