I’m not quite sure if this year’s Tigers are ready for Broadway. We’ll find out on Friday night when they play a marauding, corridor centric, heavy scoring Collingwood outfit led by Damian Hardwick’s one time grasshopper Craig MaCrae.
After a 2022 season where the Pies had a statistical profile that more closely resembled Gold Coast but for an extraordinary record in close games, the 2023 Pies look like a juggernaut early in the year. They are clearly the heaviest scoring team in footy through 2 games despite having a forward line that is densely populated with second and third bananas. They sustain this by being third in score launches (Scoring chains launched by an intercept possession, free kick, hitout-to-advantage or clearance) and inside 50s while having a number of gifted forward half players who very seldom miss when they kick at goal. As a team kicking 20.10 on the year while leading the league in shots. Put simply, if a Daicos brother gets the ball inside 50, they shouldn’t even have to bother kicking it. Just run it back to the centre. Save the ball boy a jog.
They are middle of the pack in terms of points given up, but they are so explosive going forward that it hasn’t mattered yet. All they need to do down back is hold up. The Pies have won the clearance battle consistently while also taking Richmond’s chaos ball style to its logical conclusion, apparently asking himself “what if we just played as if the wings don’t exist?” Neither he nor his staff could come up with an answer. In that sense, they have the best of both worlds. They win the clearances, but then they also prioritise the territory war.
Watching Collingwood play last year was like watching the most wrenching, absorbing average movie you’ve ever seen – think Hostage with Bruce Willis. Watching them this year is like watching Die Hard. Perfectly executed all action all the time.
The only real concerns for the Pies this year are whether their cavalcade of mediocre forwards will do them in this season? And whether they are peaking too early? A tertiary concern is whether Jordan De Goey can go 6 months without committing another crime.
Richmond, on the other hand, are still very much a work in progress. I have no concerns that the Tigers have peaked too soon. Where McRae has taken the Richmond style to its logical conclusion, Hardwick appears to be looking to zag on it. While the Tigers still clearly emphasise generating turnovers and intercepts, sitting seventh and third respectively in those categories through the first two games of the year, there has been a renewed focus on the clearance game personified by the big money signings of Taranto and Hopper.
While Richmond’s clearance stats aren’t eye popping at 9th in the AFL in clearance, their’ clearance differential is +3.5 per game which sits 7th in the AFL and should improve as they continue to refine their midfield balance. In 2019, by way of contrast, the Tigers sat last in total clearances and 16th in clearance differential.
All of a sudden, everything has flipped and the Tigers are copying Collingwood.
The other interesting change that the Tigers have made is not really a change at all, but instead a second bite at Damien Hardwick’s number 1 (on reflection maybe number 2) fetish: a third key forward. The two incumbents are obviously Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt. Lynch is one of the two or three best forwards in the AFL and has started the season well. Riewoldt is not the player that he once was but, despite his severely diminished athleticism, still knows where the goals are and still knows how to kick them. He’s like a truffle hog. Ground bound but valuable.
After the failed experiment last season with Noah Balta as the third forward, Hardwick brought Sampson Ryan in for his chance to be that third tall. The fact that Ryan was successful against Adelaide is beside the point. Where the Tigers’ once primary focus was pressure and tackles inside 50, through two games Richmond sits below league average in both categories. At 206cm, Samson Ryan is unlikely to be mistaken by Jason Castagna in terms of ball pressure.
In large part, Richmond’s allocation of resources over the offseason and the way they played in 2022 telegraphed this pivot in game style. Most Tiger fans, myself included, expected this and also expect that it will only get better as the team starts to embrace the shift. The real worries lay behind the ball where Richmond appeared either too old or too young, and altogether too reliant on Dylan Grimes coming off another severe hamstring injury. Thus far, however, Richmond is holding up. Through two games they are second in goals given up to opponents even despite having played Carlton’s twin towers. It should be noted, however that Richmond are 9th in shots allowed, a more sustainable indicator of defensive success than just goals kicked by opponents.
The true test, however, is not early in the season when everyone is fresh. What happens if/when Grimes misses some time, be it through injury or management? Would it be Vlastuin or Balta who slots into Grimes’ role? Put simply, are the X’s and O’s going to be good enough when the Jimmy’s and the Joe’s start to get worse? I don’t know, but I am apprehensive to find out.
While Collingwood spent the offseason refining their tweaks to the Richmond style and chopping the wings off the ground at Gosch’s Paddock, Richmond spent theirs implementing a new style. Friday night is not, therefore, a referendum on much of anything other than who is better in round 3. I don’t expect Richmond to win, and if Richmond loses this week, I don’t expect it to matter all that much.
The key takeaway is that all of a sudden the Tigers are behind Collingwood in terms of development and refinement of a game plan, and that makes Friday night’s game between master and apprentice all the more enticing.
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