AFL Trade Value Column: Trade Period Edition

Who’s the most valuable player in the AFL on the trade table? Not the best, not the best young player, not the best key forward. Who is the most valuable player in the AFL as far as trade value goes?

I have written this column before but now, early in trade week, it’s time for refresher. The earlier version of the column, which you can find linked below, sets out the parameters of the gimmick.(https://guywholikessport.wixsite.com/guywholikessport/post/2022-afl-trade-value-column).

The short version is that I am just flagrantly stealing from the great and powerful Bill Simmons. His idea was to rank NBA players in terms of their trade value by taking into account contract length, age, injury history, off court idiocy and positional value. The whole idea of the column is that if you were doing an NBA version of the column you might have Joel Embiid at number 6. If Daryl Morey were to call the GM of players 1 to 5 on the list, the GMs would say no and equally if Morey were to call the GM of player 7 on the list, the other team would say yes to a 1 for 1 trade.

There is obviously a far less active trade market in the AFL than the NBA and it is a less free market. As a result, another key point is that this occurs in a vacuum where players are traded to where the best offer is. Radical I know.

I should also note that contractual information is not as readily available in footy as it is in American sports, so I have just tried to piece together what’s left on contracts and averaged out salaries where they are reported.

A key point to understand is that, given there is a new TV deal and CBA coming up soon, it is likely that players will negotiate for a slightly bigger slice of the revenue pie. They currently sit at 28% of league revenue. Even if the players don't end up negotiating for a greater percentage of league revenue, which would be almost unfathomable, the simple fact is that with more revenue in the game players will make more money. As such, players with longer term deals not tied to whatever the salary cap is are invariably more valuable as money gets cheaper in footy.

Secondly, we have to think about positional value and scarcity. There are not many people that are 200cm, let alone ones that are that height and can run, jump, catch, kick and take a physical beating. This makes key position players valuable in a way that pure midfielders who can’t go forward, simply are not. I would argue alongside also that, given the modern state of defence being built on zoning off your man to help another man and eliminating 1 on 1s, key defenders are probably less valuable than the true game-wrecking key forwards.

It’s hard to score in footy and the way you kick scores is with gun forwards. This is in much the same way as it’s hard to make movies in Hollywood without someone in a cape. That person will eventually do Men’s Health video on how they got their body for the movie, and conveniently ignore the HGH they took in order to focus more heavily on the bench dips.

I would also contend that pressure and turnover in the forward half is how you win premierships. Geelong, this year’s premier, led the league in turnover differential and were number 1 by a wide margin in footy in terms of least turnovers. Their ability to crank up the pressure when they didn’t have the ball, and absorb pressure when they did, was key to their premiership. As a result, players who force turnovers are extremely valuable in a way that ruckmen are not. Geelong is, again, instructive here. They just won the premiership with Nick Riewoldt’s least favourite teammate, including the ones who burnt little people and have a sexual misconduct tab on their Wikipedia, Rhys Stanley as their number 1 ruck.

Onto the list.

“Not anymore”

The players who have dropped off the end of 2022 season list are as follows: Dustin Martin, Toby Greene, Ollie Wines, Harris Andrews, Jake Lever.

All had down years for one reason or another and teams would now *GASP* take a call on them. Okay most teams probably wouldn’t take a call but I can’t write a 25 million word article ranking every player. People would stop reading. Not that many people are reading anyway.

“How many picks ya got?”

20. Jacob Weitering (24. 2 years left. Money unclear.)

19. Tom Stewart (29. 1 year left. Money unclear.)

18. Ben King (22. 2 years left. $1.5 million left.)

These are the second-tier key position players. Stewart and Weitering are exceptions to the defender rule because they are planets around which defences are built, and are extremely valuable as a result. They’re not the weatherboard or the window dressing, they are the foundation. I have Stewart slightly ahead of Weitering because he has been less injury prone and is probably the best defender in football today, ranking second in intercepts and 11th in rebound 50s. Stewart does everything, though given Weitering’s age and his likely addition of a more damaging rebound game, could well take the spot of the top defender on this list.

The more confusing one is Ben King. Ben and his brother Max, who will figure highly on the list, make me think of the Winklevoss twins from The Social Network (NOT Armie Hammer) – there's a a long Sorkin monologue about how big they are and critically, how there's 2 of them. They are big, tall, strong and athletic even if Ben is coming off the ACL. If it works for Ben King, and I expect that it will given he kicked 47 goals in his last full season on the Gold Coast in worst off Broadway show this side of the Indian Ocean, clubs will throw the house at Gold Coast for him.

“They’re contracted players. That’s where it ends as far as I’m concerned.”

17. Jordan De Goey (26. 5 years left. $4 million left.)

16. Clayton Oliver (25. 7 years left. $7 million left.)

I didn’t want to rank Jordan De Goey. In the last trade value column I compared him to pre-allegations Kevin Spacey, not in terms of what the allegations are but instead in terms of his being undeniably gifted but a difficult package to work with. To that end, the Pies leaking that De Goey refused to sign his contract because he wouldn’t acquiesce to behavioural clauses was some beautiful PR work given De Goey’s history. Everyone involved in De Goey’s extension has made a pact with the devil and they know it, but the Pies made a prelim off the back of De Goey becoming a bona fide star (finally) so now everyone is getting fitted for horns.

Clayton Oliver is also a confounding one, like Rich Schweikart from Better Call Saul’s absurdly long sleeves. He’s locked up long term, leads footy in virtually every clearance and tackle stat, yet only kicked 5 goals this year and was outside the top 10 in goal assists. However, he’s an extremely damaging player and, unlike his counterpart, is a cleanskin. Maybe I have him ranked too low because of some cognitive dissonance – a gun athlete with red hair is very strange to me.

“He’s a unicorn. Not happening.”

15. Luke Jackson (21. Out of contract.)

14. Charlie Cameron (28. 2 years left. $1.4 million left.)

Charlie Cameron is obvious. If you accept that pressure makes diamonds and kicking goals is important, then you accept Charlie Cameron’s value. He kicked 54 goals this year, most among small forwards. He also led the league in tackles inside 50 both as a total and on a per game. He was also top 10 in assists. The only reason he wasn’t the All Australian small forward is because Tyson Stengle is new, and his story is compelling. Cameron is an easy choice.

Luke Jackson is less so. By all accounts it’s going to be at least 2 first rounders to get him over to Freo, then about $1 million a year from here on out. According to Fremantle, he is worth one less first round pick than Jeremy Cameron. His trade value is incredible in large part because he is a unicorn. He’s like a V3 of Dean Cox in terms of his ability to be an extra mid who is also a solid ruckman. Imagine if Brodie Grundy was a better tap ruckman and had worse hair.

But he had a down year this year, kicking only 11 goals and not getting enough of the ball. Not that any of this will deter Fremantle for mortgaging the future for him, proving the point of the exercise, but instead that I’m not sure of the wisdom of it.

“Any nephews or nieces I can have for them?”

13. Patrick Cripps (27. 4 years left. $4 million left.)

12. Lachie Neale (29. 3 years left. Money unclear.)

11. Andrew Brayshaw (22. 3 years left. Money unclear.)

These are the best of the pure midfielders, and it’s basically the same write up for all of them. They all do it differently – Cripps is a bullocking force through the middle, Neale gets by with guile, lateral quickness and great hands like a modern-day Sam Mitchell, and Brayshaw is more in the Neale mould just younger and cheaper and barely less good in contested situations.

Cripps kicked the most goals out of the bunch with 20 but I also expect him to age the worst given the style of game that he plays and the injury issues he’s had already. He’s also the most expensive of the lot. Neale is a star, but he only kicked 11 goals this year, is already 29, and doesn’t get involved enough in scoring plays.

Brayshaw is ranked the highest because he is the youngest at only 22. He has basically the same statistical profile as Neale and is slightly built which means he’s unlikely to ever grow into a Dustin Martin type 1 on 1 forward beast, but for this year he has the highest trade value of all of the pure midfielders, non-Sam Walsh edition.

“We’re talking children now.”

10. Darcy Moore (26. 5 years left. $5 million left.)

9. Charlie Curnow (25. 6 years left. Money unclear.)

8. Jeremy Cameron (29. 2 years left. $2 million left.)

We’re talking trades for kids now because we’re in the top 10. In this group we have the smack bang in the middle of their prime key position players. They are as good as they’re going to be, and they are bloody good.

Damian Hardwick said after Richmond played Geelong in one of the games of the year that he regularly mistook Jeremy Cameron for Isaac Smith because they look and run in a similar way. That’s like someone freaking out as I walk down the beach because they thought I was Miles Teller with my shirt off – in other words a massive compliment (hasn’t happened yet but I’ve been getting good at the shimmy). Especially so for a key forward who came second in the Coleman, and was top 10 in marks inside 50, goal assists, and score involvements.

Curnow and Moore are younger but less accomplished than Cameron. Both also were not on the previous iteration of the list because of down 2021s. At least Moore played, Curnow’s knees precluded him from that. But this year, both were exceptional with Moore clearly the highest ranked defender. He has taken the mantle from Alex Rance as the most handsome, charismatic, risk taking and eminently watchable defender in the AFL – the Tyler Durdin of the AFL minus the nihilism, if you will.

Curnow is second only to Tom Papley in the unofficial “who’s the most obnoxious celebrator” sweepstakes, loving nothing more than getting the old Hulk Hogan pythons out. But he whips them out a lot because he kicks a lot of goals and every goal he kicks feels like a big goal with the way he holds the Carlton crowd in the palm of his hand. A star in every sense of the word. He is only this low because it would be foolish to completely trust his body, given he had essentially 2 full years out of the game with knee trouble.

“First born only”

7. Sam Walsh (21. 3 years left. $2.2 million left.)

6. Shai Bolton (23. 1 year left. $600,000 left.)

The kids are alright in this here game we’ve got. And these 2 are the crème della crème. You’re splitting hairs choosing between Bolton and Walsh. Both are stars already and are already ascending players. Players like Bolton and Walsh show that the game is in a good space.

I have put Bolton ahead of Walsh only because of positional value. I would say Walsh, today, is a better player but Bolton plays a more valuable role. He is that ‘striker’ popularised by the Tigers and Dustin Martin, which has since been adopted by the Bulldogs and Demons with their guns. Players like Martin, Petracca and Bolton are creatures of the forward half, often attending centre bounces or stoppages around the ground but then moving forward to give defenders heart palpitations as a job. It worked beautifully for Bolton this year kicking 43 goals as a part time forward, ranking 4th in score involvements but then also inside the top 20 for centre clearances. That’s a prototypical striker stat line.

Beyond that, trying to tackle Bolton must be like trying to herd cats. Every time I see him duck, dive, dodge and whatever the 2 other D’s are I can’t help but think of Rocky trying to get the chicken while Mick admonishes him.

None of that is to take anything away from Walsh who is relatively cheap given his stature in the game, very young, and locked up for another 3 years. The only reason Walsh is lower is that he is a pure mid, kicking only 5 goals for the year and having only 7 assists. He just doesn’t hit the scoreboard often enough at this stage of his career. But I am sure that it will come, and even if it doesn’t, with the way that he plays, his age, and his contract status, he will be a fixture on this list.

“Two words. Elliott. Ness. Untouchable. Okay well 2 words and one word of explanation.”

5. Aaron Naughton (22. 2 years left. Money unclear.)

4. Max King (22. 4 years. $2.5 million left.)

3. Harry McKay (24. 8 years left. Money unclear,)

2. Marcus Bontempelli (26. 2 years. Money unclear.)

1. Christian Petracca (26. 6 years. $5.5 million left.)

And so it ends. With the untouchables. Sadly, we don’t have Sean Connery doing an accent for some reason. Nor do we have Robert De Niro playing baseball. What we do have, though, is 5 superstars on relatively reasonable contracts who play important positions.

3-5 are all basically the same conversation. These are freak athletes who are big, tall and long. None are as good as Jeremy Cameron or Tom Lynch are today, but they are all younger and locked up relatively long term. Everything about them screams trade value, even despite relatively down years for Naughton and McKay.

All 3 kicked over 45 goals this year and ranked in the top 15 for goals and goals per game. They also were dominant in the contested mark and marks inside 50 ranks, all ranking in the top 10 of contested marks and marks inside 50 both in terms of totals and averages. Finding a Naughton, King or McKay is how start to turn the ship around.

The top 2 are also easy. They do it differently but they both do it well, playing a similar role to the one explained for Shai Bolton. They are strikers. Killers on the football field. Breakers of will.

Bontempelli is a silky-smooth player who glides atop the ground, loping around like a gazelle without a lion to chase him. Even in a year that was impacted by injuries he kicked 24 goals, was 4th in goal assists, and inside the top 20 for centre clearances, clearances and inside 50s.

Petracca, on the other hand, is a bull and a tough bull at that, pulling a Francis Bourke and playing a semi-final on a broken leg. Petracca kicked fewer goals this year and seemed to spend less time forward. Last year he kicked 29 goals, this year only 19.

HOWEVAH…

He was first in goal assists, first in goal assists per game, first in inside 50s, second in score involvements, 7th in metres gained, and 17th in total clearances. Even with less goals, Petracca impacts winning games in a way that accumulators like Zach Merrett or Tom Mitchell could only dream of. Petracca is who you should be searching for, locked up on a reasonable deal and who is a winning player. A leader. A superstar.

I finally just wanted to give a quick shoutout to Carlton. They have a quarter of this list, the last 2 Coleman medallists and the reigning Brownlow medallist and they haven’t made the finals in the last 2 years. You hate to see that.

Real shame.

The final list is:

1. Christian Petracca (26. 6 years. $5.5 million left.)

2. Marcus Bontempelli (26. 2 years. Money unclear.)

3. Harry McKay (24. 8 years left. Money unclear,)

4. Max King (22. 4 years. $2.5 million left.)

5. Aaron Naughton (22. 2 years left. Money unclear.)

6. Shai Bolton (23. 1 year left. $600,000.)

7. Sam Walsh (21. 3 years left. $2.2 million left.)

8. Jeremy Cameron (29. 2 years left. $2 million left.)

9. Charlie Curnow (25. 6 years left. Money unclear.)

10. Darcy Moore (26. 5 years left. $5 million left.)

11. Andrew Brayshaw (22. 3 years left. Money unclear.)

12. Lachie Neale (29. 3 years left. Money unclear.)

13. Patrick Cripps (27. 4 years left. $4 million left.)

14. Charlie Cameron (28. 2 years left. $1.4 million left.)

15. Luke Jackson (21. Out of contract.)

16. Clayton Oliver (24. 7 years left. $7 million dollars left.)

17. Jordan De Goey (26. 5 years. $4 million left.)

18. Ben King (22. 2 years left. $1.5 million left.)

19. Tom Stewart (29. 1 years left. Money unclear.)

20. Jacob Weitering (24. 2 years left. Money unclear)

Outs: Dustin Martin, Toby Greene, Ollie Wines, Harris Andrews, Jake Lever